> technology. As long as that keeps advancing, new products and
> services keep being produced, older technology gets cheaper or becomes
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> then, all it takes is a large enough move in technology for a
> competitor to run it out of business.
> >This is analoguous to the airline/airfares debacle, IBM pc debacle, etc. Do
> >you want champagne and real cutlery or a cheap fare and a comfortable seat?
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> that one has definite limits, whereas I don't know what the limits are
> for the other.
> >X-subsidising is a way of getting one group of users to subsidise another.
> >So phones are being currently being subsidised to get new customers on board
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> keep shareholders happy, without whose money, we would never have had
> mobiles.
>I take your point and am glad that you are thinking in terms of the
>economics of the industry in the broadest terms, as am I.
>
>Any company that wants to stay in business does r and d, however to get
>people who will never use the additional services to pay for them is
>unlikely to work for long in the face of corporations who don't.
They are not paying for them. This idea of subsdising other users
seems to be interpreted as being more direct than elsewhere. Maybe it
is. But for the example you sited, perhaps it's a loss leader
strategy. I can't see any mobile operator, or business, offering a
good that makes a loss, believing it will continue to make a loss,
while paying for it out of the profits from other areas. They'd just
not offer the loss making good.
Corporations who don't? So you do want more segregation. It sounds
like you want to see a "McDonalds" in the mobile phone market, who
produces the cheapest possible goods, making money by being bought by
everyone. How someone gets financing to do this is what I cannot see.
The product is so closely linked to technology, and start up costs are
so large, who is going to invest in it knowing that you aren't going
to bother offering other services which might yield more profit. And
what happens if a new technology comes along that can undercut you out
of your own market? You spent all your time making costs cheaper, and
didn't keep up with technology, and now you've got to fold. I
wouldn't invest in them at this time.
>The usual approach is to finance the differing strands of your business
>separately - this is better for the corporation because it can spin off the
>new business when necessary, this is how the phone cos dealt with the
>internet and mobile phones for example. It's better for investors because
>when they buy mobile phone shares they want to buy mobile phone shares not a
>hodge-podge of businesses. This should maximise the value of the shares.
It is the usual approach because it simplifies things, like valuation,
wheher a particular area is profitable or not, performance etc. It is
not because it makes it easier to sell off. Investors don't care
about what the company does, except with regard to it making money.
If the company is involved in many areas, it is less likely to suffer
major losses due to a change in one particular area. If it is
involved in one area, it is more likely to suffer major losses due to
a change in that industry.
>But the whole of this industry changes with the
>> technology.
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>customers will use and expect the broad mass of them to pay for it, whatever
>happens!
Again, how are you going to get someone to finance your venture, if
you are not going to take sensible precautions, to protect yourself
from going bust, appropriate for the industry? It seems the companies
that are destined to fail are the ones you want to survive. The
current conditions do not allow a "McDonalds" right now. I do however
see that this is what you want to occur, and can even see it
happening.
>Hmm, I see people want cheaper
>> calls & texts, but I still can't help thinking that if you think it's
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
>who has the largest network because by being on the same network as your
>correspondents will reduce your mobile telephony costs.
Is this not being currently addressed by X-net calls being included in
tariffs?
>> >This is analoguous to the airline/airfares debacle, IBM pc debacle, etc.
>Do
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
>and more for their mobile phone bills for services. This is just plain wrong
>I think and yet another example of the Madness of Crowds.
No-one is clearly subsidising anyone. Unless you give money to
someone, which they can only use for spending on their mobile. You
are providing profit for the company, and if they want to spend their
profit on R&D, well, what is wrong with that? If they want to spend
their profit on loss leading offers aimed at new customers, what is
wrong with that too? If you disagree with the business plans of these
companies, then don't buy their products.
I haven't seen reports of these companies. But it is hard to imagine
they want to keep the same number of users, and just charge them more,
or increase their prices. What I would be more inclined to believe is
that they want to offer more services which consumers find desireable,
and so use them more, and hence generate more income for the company.
What you are suggesting sounds like a heroin dealer, who gives you
your first hit free, gets you hooked, then charges you whatever he
wants later.
>> >Network providers are talking of increasing revenue per unit (ARPU), and
>> >consumers are talking about cheaper phones and calls. In a free market,
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
>Remember that there is limited access to bandwidth hence whoever limits it
>is determining what kind of a market it is.
What? What does this mean? Can anyone provide an explanation of
this? I haven't got a clue.
>Therefore there needs to be some
>regulation to ensure that the customers (who have a genuine need to keep in
>touch with each other basically) aren't too badly fleeced by the
>quasi-monopoly.
Regulation is not like this. Actually, I've previously said that
regulatory bodies intervene in a market when the consumer is being
treated unfairly. I think now, that this is wrong. It's more whether
it is right or not. Now, T. Blair has decided that OFCOM should look
at this market. He might be thinking this will win him middle class
votes, but hopefully this is not his motivation. He hopefully is
thinking that mobiles are such a great product that everyone can
derive use out of them, and so everyone should have access to them,
and they should be affordable to everyone. So he wants prices to come
down, so that even the lowest earners can use a mobile. The mobile
companies will argue that if they reduce price, yes, more people will
buy them, but they could have made more money keeping their prices as
they were, so will the government pay for this loss of income. T.
Blair will get OFCOM to devise suitable arguments as to why not. It
is not that people are being "fleeced" by big bad corporations. They
set their prices, they may even be price fixing (unspoken), and people
buy it or not. There is nothing wrong with this, even price fixing
has nothing wrong with it. It's more that T. Blair has decided that
mobiles are good for everyone, so wants it to become more widely
available, and he's going to try to get companies to reduce price to
achieve this.
>> >X-subsidising is a way of getting one group of users to subsidise
>another.
[quoted text clipped - 30 lines]
>commoditization. The price must drop but it isn't. OFCOM could assist this
>process if they wanted to in several key ways.
If corporations get it wrong, they fold (or take a loss). Same with
consumers. As a consumer, I do not expect a corporation to explain
where every penny of the price goes, nor to inform me that their
competitors may offer the same product at a cheaper price. If they
promise to supply me something at a stated price then renege on that
agreement, then I'd have a problem with them.
There is no economic reason why prices must drop, outside of a change
in consumer demand or production competition. Even if it gets cheaper
to produce, and conumers see themselves as being "fleeced" there is
still no reason to drop price. Consumers just moan more. Only if
demand decreased or competition increased is there reason to change
price.
>> If you really want prices to come down, what you have to do is stop
>> using them, and hope that the companies providing them can still make
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
>never will, and it will probably end up flat or broken in the glove
>compartment for when she really needs to use it. This is just plain crazy.
You keep saying the same argument over and over again. People
subsidising other people's purchases. This is not happening in my
eyes. When I buy a phone, I look at the price, I look at whether I
would use it, I look at what else is available to me, and then buy it
or not. I do not think, out of the £30 i'm going to pay for a PAYG
mobile, that 20p of that will go towards some other person's call
cost, nor that it might go to a shareholders purchase of his new
Mercedes. These things might be happening indirectly, and if I really
thought that, and it bothered me that much, I wouldn't buy it.
Your 77 yr old friend. Well, what do you want from a mobile? Should
it come with an operator who follows you about with mobile in hand
ready to dial your number for you, and ensuring it remains charged up
at all times? Now you want the mobile provider to be a perfectly
discriminating monopolist. It seems you want to have your cake, eat
it, now, and whenever you feel even vaguely hungry.
>In other words why should the average airline passenger pay for BA's
>overextended, overstaffed, and overserviced network? They don't anymore, of
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>or from the buyers of the new services. This is how all start-up businesses
>have to do it, rather than from a captive cash cow.
Prices in the airline market came down *because of* people like
EasyJet and RyanAir.
>As a result of investigating the mobile phone market over the past few
>weeks, my hunch is that the average mobile phone user is in the process of
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>make an ideal mobile phone and mobile phone service provider for 99 pct of
>the market.
I don't want to be rude, but I'm not so sure about obvious, and think
maybe more simple.
>Of course, the only way it will happen, is if enough people express
>dissatisfaction with the current state of play.
There are three options to my mind.
i) The government subsides mobile phones.
ii) There is a decrease in consumer demand.
iii) There is an increase in production competition.
>Cheers
>Fred
Fred Gibson - 31 Dec 2003 02:53 GMT
> >I take your point and am glad that you are thinking in terms of the
> >economics of the industry in the broadest terms, as am I.
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> while paying for it out of the profits from other areas. They'd just
> not offer the loss making good.
??? Company A provides services A1 and A2. A1 is cheap because A2 is
overpriced and subsidises A1. Company B only provides service A2, but at the
right price. If most people want service A2 only then if there are no other
factors Company A loses customers. What's so complicated about that?
> Corporations who don't? So you do want more segregation. It sounds
> like you want to see a "McDonalds" in the mobile phone market, who
> produces the cheapest possible goods, making money by being bought by
> everyone. How someone gets financing to do this is what I cannot see.
??? You raise capital by promising shareholders and debtors a share of your
future income stream like all other companies. The return promised is
related to the perceived riskiness of the income stream.
> The product is so closely linked to technology, and start up costs are
> so large, who is going to invest in it knowing that you aren't going
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> didn't keep up with technology, and now you've got to fold. I
> wouldn't invest in them at this time.
???? I think you are under a misunderstanding that I believe no corporation
should do r and d. What I am pointing out is that this is an inefficient
market where many customers' needs are not being met. I think there are
technical reasons for this, essentially that there are a limited number of
networks and widespread ignorance amongst consumers, so corporations are
less in competition with each other to offer the best product at the best
price (lower margins for customers), and rather are seeking to maximise
their return from each subscriber (a win win situation for all mobile phone
networks).
> >The usual approach is to finance the differing strands of your business
> >separately - this is better for the corporation because it can spin off the
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> not because it makes it easier to sell off. Investors don't care
> about what the company does, except with regard to it making money.
I disagree. Check any book such as Principles of Corporate Finance for more
on this. As a pension fund seeking exposure to the oil industry, say, you
do not want to buy a computer manufacturer in California as well. Therefore
Exxon and Apple are more valuable separately than together.
> If the company is involved in many areas, it is less likely to suffer
> major losses due to a change in one particular area. If it is
[quoted text clipped - 26 lines]
> see that this is what you want to occur, and can even see it
> happening.
I think the reasons that low-cost mobile telephony is blocked is because
there is not open access to new and existing networks. I believe that lost
cost mobile phones connected to low cost networks would be profitable. I
can't see any reason that what applies in other markets throughout time does
not apply to mobile phones. I don't think such a company would have any
difficulty at all raising substantial capital in the financial markets at
reasonable cost. What they will have a problem with is getting access to the
networks themselves, or building their own, and that is a regulatory or
legislative issue.
> >Hmm, I see people want cheaper
> >> calls & texts, but I still can't help thinking that if you think it's
> >> too expensive, don't use it. And particularly, don't use it, and then
> >> moan about it afterwards.
I think there is a huge untapped market of people who typically have PAYG
phones (or none at all) and rarely use them or rarely call people on mobile
phones because they're too expensive.
> >> At the moment we have a great deal of choice. I cannot see this as a
> >> bad thing, even though it can be confusing. I'd rather have too many
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> Is this not being currently addressed by X-net calls being included in
> tariffs?
??? No. For the average user with a random assortment of on net and x net
calls the cheapest phone bill will always be offered by the largest network,
by distinguishing their on-net and x-net calls.
> >> >This is analoguous to the airline/airfares debacle, IBM pc debacle, etc.
> >Do
[quoted text clipped - 28 lines]
> wrong with that too? If you disagree with the business plans of these
> companies, then don't buy their products.
You can call it what you like, it's still excessive profits on uncompetitive
service A2 servicing service A1.
> I haven't seen reports of these companies.
I recommend you look at a few. They are all available on the net for free
(Google) and key for understanding what the companies want their investors
to know, as well as providing good quality information on the companies
revenue (pace Parmalat, Enron et al.)
But it is hard to imagine
> they want to keep the same number of users, and just charge them more,
> or increase their prices. What I would be more inclined to believe is
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> your first hit free, gets you hooked, then charges you whatever he
> wants later.
?? As a group they are unable to attract more customers because the UK
market is saturated at present prices, so they can only reallocate market
share amongst each other or look to increase revenue per customer. That
means making customers pay more each month for something.
Take Orange (parent France Telecom) for example. Since Orange is the
largest, unless they carry on being as stupid as they are, they have a
natural advantage because of their size, and the attraction that cheaper
in-net calls and more extensive network provide. However, they have spent a
huge amount to get themselves into this situation (including some really
stupid prices for licences) and have huge debts to service. I don't believe
that efficient markets should reward stupidity. They can't afford any more
to throw money around to attract customers from other networks (price wars =
lower margins) so they have to get more from each customer. This is why they
are desperate to get people to go into higher margin products, or to pay
more for what they are getting.
> >> >Network providers are talking of increasing revenue per unit (ARPU), and
> >> >consumers are talking about cheaper phones and calls. In a free market,
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
> >> company), and consumers always want lower prices. Only if the market
> >> is treating the consumer unfairly (price fixing etc.),
hen OFCOM can
> >> do something. But hasn't Tony Blair already said he wants to see
> >> prices come down? Which is a market imperfection already.
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> What? What does this mean? Can anyone provide an explanation of
> this? I haven't got a clue.
In other words, there are a limited number of networks and they are
allocated and regulated by the British government. That's why it's not a
free market.
> >Therefore there needs to be some
> >regulation to ensure that the customers (who have a genuine need to keep in
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
> available, and he's going to try to get companies to reduce price to
> achieve this.
1. Regulatory bodies etc will intervene whether they feel like it, perhaps
whenever they are told to do so. They are not forces of nature, just a few
dickheads sitting round a desk, looking after their careers (which are
likely to be within the industry anyway).
2. If mobile phones are essential items like food, gas, energy, electricity,
as I think they have become, then a monopoly where the charges me three
times what a thing is worth is a very very bad thing IMHO.
3. Even the most rabid capitalist would not agree that cornering the market
for mobile phones in the UK is good for consumers, or more broadly the UK
economy.
> >> >X-subsidising is a way of getting one group of users to subsidise
> >another.
[quoted text clipped - 32 lines]
>
> If corporations get it wrong, they fold (or take a loss).
Not if they have monopolies.
Same with
> consumers. As a consumer, I do not expect a corporation to explain
> where every penny of the price goes, nor to inform me that their
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> demand decreased or competition increased is there reason to change
> price.
You mean when the monopoly is broken.
> >> If you really want prices to come down, what you have to do is stop
> >> using them, and hope that the companies providing them can still make
[quoted text clipped - 24 lines]
> You keep saying the same argument over and over again. People
> subsidising other people's purchases.
This is not happening in my
> eyes. When I buy a phone, I look at the price, I look at whether I
> would use it, I look at what else is available to me, and then buy it
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> Mercedes. These things might be happening indirectly, and if I really
> thought that, and it bothered me that much, I wouldn't buy it.
The trick is to put yourself in someone elses shoes. If you have to have a
phone, but all you are offered is overpriced and badly designed then you
will have to buy that regardless.
> Your 77 yr old friend. Well, what do you want from a mobile? Should
> it come with an operator who follows you about with mobile in hand
> ready to dial your number for you, and ensuring it remains charged up
> at all times? Now you want the mobile provider to be a perfectly
> discriminating monopolist. It seems you want to have your cake, eat
> it, now, and whenever you feel even vaguely hungry.
I may not have explained myself clearly enough? I offered a concrete example
of someone with money whose needs weren't being addressed by the mobile
phone networks as they stand at the moment. Clearly, in an efficiently
responsive market, a large group (perhaps the majority) of consumers whose
requirements are being so comprehensively neglected or catastrophically
misinterpreted will have their needs met sooner or later by someone else.
But if no-one is allowed to do that then they won't. This implies the market
isn't efficient. Voila. Where the cake and the discriminating monopolists
come into this, I just don't know. The regulatory body could change the
status quo by removing the barriers to price competition and forcing the
companies to unbundle their services. This will permit commoditization in
the same way you can buy orange juice or pork bellies, or petrol etc. Of
course the existing companies will scream blue murder. They know perfectly
well that in a freer market their profits will drop. Why the government
should subsidise this as you suggest is beyond me. No-one promised them a
monopoly in the first place!
> >In other words why should the average airline passenger pay for BA's
> >overextended, overstaffed, and overserviced network? They don't anymore, of
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> Prices in the airline market came down *because of* people like
> EasyJet and RyanAir.
??? Uhh, yes, that's right. (?)
> >As a result of investigating the mobile phone market over the past few
> >weeks, my hunch is that the average mobile phone user is in the process of
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> >make an ideal mobile phone and mobile phone service provider for 99 pct of
> >the market.
> I don't want to be rude, but I'm not so sure about obvious, and think
> maybe more simple.
OK, what do you think is the ideal phone and network for the broad bulk of
the mobile phone market?
> >Of course, the only way it will happen, is if enough people express
> >dissatisfaction with the current state of play.
>
> There are three options to my mind.
> i) The government subsides mobile phones.
Doesn't have to. Just needs to make it a level playing field, and free
access to competition. Will only happen if people complain.
> ii) There is a decrease in consumer demand.
Not in itself sufficient reason, particularly in a monopoly. Remember that
the companies are trying to maximise return to shareholders, so lower
consumer demand but higher prices might provide the maximum return to
shareholders. This is what the companies are aiming for.
> iii) There is an increase in production competition.
If by this you mean that the networks will compete more vigorously with each
other, as i've shown it's unlikely because it's contrary to the interests of
the networks as a whole. Might just happen if they are stupid enough.
Cheers Fred
-------> Ian - 31 Dec 2003 11:55 GMT
Fred,
Thanks for your reply. But I'm not going to carry this on, as I don't
think you know what you are talking about.
Fred Gibson - 31 Dec 2003 13:46 GMT
> Fred,
>
> Thanks for your reply. But I'm not going to carry this on, as I don't
> think you know what you are talking about.
Pls don't tell my employers, I've managed to fool them for years.
PS: Another genuinely useful feature for a mobile phone for most people
would be some optional means of telling you how much your call was costing
you while you were making or receiving a call.
Cheers
Fred
Steve Terry - 31 Dec 2003 20:28 GMT
> Fred,
> Thanks for your reply. But I'm not going to carry this on, as I don't
> think you know what you are talking about.
I came to that conclusion long ago
Steve Terry